Executive summary Non-life premium growth improved in Global non-life premium growth improved to 3.6% in 2015 from 2.% the previou 2015… mainl driven b the advanƒed ear 2015 2 020 billion €. ‚he advanƒed mar„et were the main driver… with mar„et. all region other than †ƒeania e‡perienƒing higher growth rate. ˆdvanƒed ˆia ‰.1%€ regitered the highet growth among the advanƒed region… and there wa a ƒoniderable gain in North ˆmeriƒa ‰3.2%€ alo. Growth wa moderate in Šetern ‹urope ‰1.5%€… but that wa neverthele an improvement on previou ear of tagnation. ‹merging mar„et ƒontinued their robut premium growth trend ‰Œ.Ž%€… primaril driven b ‘hina. †ther mar„et in emerging ˆia were olid alo… a were the ’iddle ‹at and ‘entral ˆia ‰“.0%€. ”n ‘‹‹… non-life premium ƒontraƒted… due to a harp fall in •uia. –rofitabilit wa under preure in both –rofitabilit in life and non-life remained under preure in 2015. ”n life… moderate life and non-life… but both eƒtor are well premium growth in man mar„et and the prolonged low interet rate dragged on ƒapitalied. profit. ”n non-life… both the underwriting and invetment reult wa wea„er than in 201. ‚he underwriting reult wa impaƒted b lower reerve releae and invetment reult were hit b low interet rate. —owever… the inuranƒe indutr overall remain well ƒapitalied. ˜ife premium growth in the advanƒed ˜ife premium growth i e‡peƒted to aƒƒelerate lightl in the advanƒed eƒonomie mar„et will improve lightl… but non-life in 2016… mainl driven b a modet improvement in Šetern ‹urope and a reƒover premium growth will moderate. in †ƒeania. ”n the emerging mar„et… the life eƒtor i foreƒat to deƒelerate inƒe premium growth in ‘hina i e‡peƒted to low from the high level of 2015. ‚he out- loo„ for the non-life indutr in advanƒed mar„et i more muted than for life… given e‡peƒtation of a moderate eƒonomiƒ reƒover and priƒing wea„ne. ‚he outloo„ for non-life in the emerging mar„et i mi‡ed. –remium growth will li„el be trong in emerging ˆia… mainl upported b ‘hina. ”n other emerging region… however… premium growth i e‡peƒted to wea„en or even ƒontraƒt. ‚he peƒial ƒhapter of thi sigma foƒue ‚rade flow have lowed in reƒent ear. Global trade grew about twiƒe a fat a on lower trade growth and it world G– between the earl 1““0 and mid-2000… but ha grown at the ame impliƒation for related line of inuranƒe. paƒe a G– in more reƒent ear. ‚he lowdown ha in part been ƒƒliƒal due to luggih eƒonomiƒ growth… and trade hould piƒ„ up again onƒe eƒonomiƒ aƒtivit aƒƒelerate. —owever… the lowdown alo refleƒt deeper… truƒtural faƒtor… uƒh a a limit in the further diperion of global uppl ƒhain… proteƒtionim and the tranitioning of the ‘hinee eƒonom from e‡port- and invetment-led growth to dometiƒ erviƒe and ƒonumption. ‚he negative impaƒt of the trade lowdown on global growth reduƒe eƒtor-wide premium growth generall. ˆ peritent lowdown in global trade will affeƒt marine and ƒredit inuranƒe growth in partiƒular. ‚he data in thi tud are the latet ‚hi sigma tud ƒontain the latet mar„et data available at the time of going to available at the time of going to pre. pre. ‚he final figure for 2015 are not available for mot inuranƒe mar„et. ˆ uƒh… the sigma alo ƒontain wi •e ‹ƒonomiƒ •eearƒh ™ ‘onulting etimate and proviional data releaed b upervior authoritie and inuranƒe aoƒiation. 2 Swiss Re sigma No 3/2016
World Insurance in 2015 Page 5 Page 7