The global economy and inancial marets in 201 lobal economic growth uneven across regions The global economy grew moderately in The global re/insurance industry aced another year o moderate economic growth 201… in 201… lobal real gross domestic product †€‡ was up 2…ˆ‰ above the postŽ crisis annual average o 2…2ˆ… rowth in advanced marets continued to improve‰ to 1…¡ˆ rom 1…ˆ in 201’… This was still below the preŽcrisis but exceeded the postŽ crisis average by 1 percentage point †ppt‡… Emerging marets’ aggregate growth was disappointing at 3…ˆ‰ less than hal the preŽinancial crisis average growth levels o ƒ…’ˆ‰ and below the postŽcrisis average o ’…ƒˆ… rowth in the advanced marets mong the advanced marets‰ the ‹„ economy expanded by 2…’ˆ‰ while growth continued to improve slightly … in —anada ell to 1…2ˆ rom 2…ˆ in 201’… Total € growth in North merica ell to 2…3ˆ‰ slightly short o the preŽcrisis but 1 ppt more than the postŽcrisis annual average growth rate… •apan’s economy grew slightly ater a shallow recession in 201’… n Œestern Europe‰ growth improved to 1…ˆ in 201 †201’“ 1…’ˆ‡‰ supported by low interest rates‰ low oil prices and a relatively wea euro… The ‹– outperormed its continental peers again while within the Euro area‰ ermany and „pain grew aster than ¥rance and taly‰ where structural reorms are still much needed… … but emerging maret growth was ggregate emerging maret growth was wea at 3…ˆ‰ with some countries wea‰ with some countries impacted by struggling with low commodity prices and political instability… rowth in other low commodity prices and political marets‰ however‰ most notably —hina‰ —EE E‹ member countries and rican instability… nonŽcommodity exporters‰ remained solid… eep recessions in ¦ra§il and ¨ene§uela dragged on overall perormance in ”atin merica… ¦ra§il’s economy contracted by 3…ˆ‰ suering rom low commodity prices‰ high inlation and political uncertainty… n ‚exico‰ industrial activity was low while private consumption remained healthy… Economic growth in most —EE countries was solid but recession in ˜ussia †€ ell 3…ƒˆ‡‰ due to low oil prices and sanctions because o the ‹raine conlict‰ weighed on the region’s aggregate growth †–1…2ˆ‡… ndia overtoo —hina as the world’s The emerging sian economies expanded unevenly last year… —hina’s economy astest growing large economy… continued its transition rom manuacturing to services‰ and growth slowed to 6…¡ˆ‰ Šust below the government’s target o ƒˆ… ndia was the world’s astestŽexpanding large economy †£ƒ…3ˆ‡ in 201‰ with business and consumer sentiment improving signiicantly on expectations o a strong push towards economic reorm and liberali§ation by the Narendra ‚odi government… ‚aŠor economies in rica developed ‚aŠor economies in rica developed unevenly‰ driven largely by political unevenly due to political uncertainties developments and lower oil and commodity prices… rowth in „outh rica was and dependency on commodities… sluggish with companies there having to contend with lower commodity prices‰ wea domestic demand‰ electrical outages‰ worer stries and rising input costs… Nigeria and ngola suered rom low oil prices and inrastructure bottlenecs‰ while many oilŽimporting countries grew solidly †eg‰ ‚orocco‰ –enya and —ôte d’voire‡… n the ‚iddle East and —entral sia‰ „audi rabia experienced solid growth‰ supported by greater public spending‰ despite collapsing government revenues rom oil… rowth in Turey was robust‰ despite civil disturbance and political turmoil… Swiss Re sigma No 3/2016 3
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