Figure 1 USD bn Aggregate of the US, Canada, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Australia NonŽlie insurers’ solvency‰ 1¡¡¡–2016 1400 140% 1200 120% 1000 100% 800 80% 600 60% 400 40% 200 20% 0 0% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 E F 999 000 20 20 20 20 20 15 16 1 2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 remiums earned   estimate Shareholders euity F  forecast Solency euity­premiums – ‚ƒS„ „ource“ „wiss ˜e Economic ˜esearch ™ —onsulting… Non-life insurance industr€ outloo„ ”ower premium rates and wea lobal nonŽlie sector growth is expected to weaen due to moderate economic economic growth will drag on nonŽlie activity and sot pricing‰ mainly in the advanced marets… n North merica‰ premium premium development in advanced growth is expected to slow slightly in 2016 because o price declines in most marets… commercial lines… n Œestern Europe‰ nonŽlie premium growth will remain subdued due to moderate economic recovery… n advanced sia‰ a weaening economic environment will pose challenges to most o the nonŽlie sector‰ but some lines are expected to grow †eg‰ accident ™ health‰ due to increasing awareness and product reŽpricing‡… The nonŽlie sector in ¢ceania will liely be aected by pricing pressures and also regulatory changes †see page 2ƒ‡… rowth in Emerging sia will remain The outloo or emerging marets is mixed… Emerging sia is orecast to grow strong‰ mainly driven by —hina… robustly‰ mainly driven by —hina because o government support or insurance… ¥urther bacing will come rom rate hies in motor thirdŽparty liability †‚T€”‡ insurance in ndia and inrastructure investments in other sian marets… ‘owever‰ detariication o motor in —hina and ‚alaysia could oset some o the positive momentum in the region… NonŽlie premiums in rica and the ‚iddle East and —entral sia will continue to grow but at a lower rate than beore… n ”atin merica‰ growth is expected to be lat due to contraction in ¦ra§il and ¨ene§uela‰ and slower growth in rgentina… n —EE‰ nonŽlie premiums are expected to decline urther due to contraction in ˜ussia‰ where the economy remains stuc in recession… ¢verall nonŽlie sector proitability will NonŽlie insurers’ proitability is expected to continue to be under pressure as remain subdued… investment returns remain depressed and sot maret conditions continue… Swiss Re sigma No 3/2016 1