Figure 15 140 lobal manuacturing and export price 130 Export price index indices †200¯100‡ 120 Manufacturing price index 110 100 90 80 70 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 9 9 9 9 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 19 19 19 2 20 20 20 20 2 2 2 2 Manufacturing price index Export price index „ource“ —€¦ Netherlands ¦ureau or Economic €olicy nalysis‰ „wiss ˜e Economic ˜esearch ™ —onsulting… This raises «uestions regarding the outloo ‹„­ aggregation eects overstate the magnitude o the recent slowdown in trade‰ o the global tradeŽtoŽ­€ ratio… but it is also visible in real terms… This raises the «uestion o whether the trade slowdown is cyclical or relects a structural change in the world economy… nd‰ i the latter‰ how will the decrease in the tradeŽtoŽ­€ growth ratio impact global economic growth¬ ­eterminants o the slowdown Œ€clical factors ­uring recession‰ the purchase o traded Trade volumes normally respond more than proportionally to movements in real ­€… 11 goods is oten postponed‰ resulting in rwin explains this by citing that demand or investment and durable consumer high sensitivity o trade volumes to ­€ goods is cyclical‰ growing rapidly in times o strong economic perormance… s these moves… goods represent a large share o global trade volumes‰ recent weaness in global growth is liely having a negative impact on the tradeŽtoŽ­€ ratio… ntraŽE‹ trade matters disproportionally The regional composition o world growth is also important… n particular‰ sluggish or global trade‰ and E‹ ­€ growth has growth in the E‹ in recent years has had a disproportionally large impact on global been wea or the last several years… trade volumes“ the E‹ accounts or less than one «uarter o global output‰ but or more than one third o global trade… The substantial trade lows between E‹ member states are included as part o global trade statistics… ‘owever‰ trade within large countries †eg‰ the ‹„ or —hina‡ is not included… —yclical actors explain some o the nother cyclical actor in the tradeŽvolume slowdown since 200ƒ is that economic recent slowdown… growth in many emerging marets has been wea relative to the previous two decades… eopolitical tensions‰ exchange rate luctuations‰ and the holding o o investments because o an uncertain outloo has also contributed to lower lows… 11 rwin‰ op… cit… Swiss Re sigma No 3/2016 1ƒ