‘Šer ai“an… €eoria and ±aŠakhstan ‘Šer ai“an… €eoria and ±aŠakhstan have ‘Šer ai“an… €eoria and ±aŠakhstan are incuded in this anaysis as exame 1 otentia for a ove†averae economic frontier markets from the ŒIŽ‡ Economic deveoment in these countries… athouh and insurance sector rowth‡ acceeratin in recent years… sti as rowth in other ost†Žoviet countries… and their insurance markets aso remain underdeveoed‡ €iven their ouation siŠe… need for infrastructure deveoment… and strateic ocations etween Euroe and ‘sia… these countries have the otentia for a ove†averae economic and insurance remium rowth in the comin decades‡ Figure … ‘Šer ai“an… €eoria and ±aŠakhstan Geor gi a Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Žource: Žwiss ‹e‡ conomic deeloment £owever… rowth rosects have ˆhe three ŒIŽ markets vary in economic siŠe… and rowth attern and drivers‡ weakened in the current ow oi rice ‘Šer ai“an’s rea €‚ƒ rew at an averae annua rate of 11 etween 2000 and environment… iven the countries’ heavy 2014… the iest increase of a ŒIŽ and ŒEE countries… and even outacin Œhina‡ reiance on oi and as‡ ±aŠakhstan rew y ¢‡¢ on averae durin this time and €eoria y ™‡‡ ˆhe rowth was driven rimariy y demand for natura resources from deveoed and deveoin countries‡ In the case of ±aŠakhstan… Œhina has ecome its arest exort market‡ In contrast… ‘Šer ai“an’s arest exort market is Itay… to which it 1’ exorts crude etroeum‡ ¦ith their rich natura resources ase… from natura as and oi to utonium… the ŒIŽ frontier markets enefitted from the uturn in o a commodity rices that started in the eary 2000s‡ £owever… they have strued to diversify their economies away from oi deendency and… iven the current ow rice of oi… their rowth rosects have weakened‡ ˆhe current economic chaenes have In resonse to the decinin oi rices… ¥Ž doar strenth and dwindin forein sarked currency devauation … exchane reserves… ±aŠakhstan and ‘Šer ai“an have a andoned their doar currency es‡ ˆhis has resuted in su stantia currency dereciations… with the ±aŠakhstani tene osin a out ™0 of its vaue since ‘uust 201™… and the ‘Šer ai“ani manat dereciatin y a out a third since ‚ecem er 201™‡20 ˆhis has heed rotect forein currency reserves ut has aso ed to a drastic increase in infation and financin chaenes‡21 £owever… the short†term ain shoud ena e medium† to on†term imrovements in cometitiveness‡ €eoria has fared etter in the ow commodity rice environment ecause of its more diversified exort ortfoio that incudes auto comonents for ¦estern Euroe‡ Žti… it is feein the effects of sowdown in its arest tradin artner… ‘Šer ai“an‡ 18 €eoria was a mem er of the ŒIŽ unti 200’… when it withdrew‡ It remains affiiated to the ŒIŽ throuh continued articiation in areements such as free trade and visa†free trave‡ 19 ‚ata taken from ¥nited Nations Žtatistica ‚ivision Œ”˜ˆ‹‘‚E„… htt://comtrade‡un‡or/d / 20 ‚ata taken from ‰oom er‡ 21 “‘Šer ai“an outines ans to raise ·2 n without externa aid”… ˆinancial Times, 2 §anuary 2016‡ Swiss Re sigma No 2/2016 11
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